Rates and calendarOct 8, 2026, 10:00 AM ET

The one-year yield is at its lowest since September 17 and the ten-year is near the year's high: what does this change for the comparison with a box?

Applies to:: SPX box spread, American-style box spread, Half box
Risk type:: Financing cost

Fact

The one-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.42% on October 7: its lowest since September 17 (4.40%). A week earlier, on September 30, it was 4.54%; on September 28, 4.59%.
The two-year was 4.77% (4.88% on September 30).
The ten-year was 5.28%, 0.03 percentage points below the 2026 high (5.31%, October 5).
Overnight rates on October 6: SOFR 3.90%, EFFR 3.88%; the Fed's target range is 3.75–4.00%.

Sources: U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates (data as of October 7, 2026, checked October 8, 2026); Federal Reserve Bank of New York, reference rates (data as of October 6, 2026).

Our reading

The curve is diverging: the segment around one year, comparable to the term of a one-year box, fell 0.12 percentage points over the week, while the long end stays near the year's high. For comparing financing costs, what matters is the segment that matches the loan's term, not the ten-year rate. One week of movement is not yet a trend.

What to check

Which part of the curve do you compare your financing rate with, and does it match in term?
Does your rate float with the Fed's rate, or is it fixed for the term?

Limits

The entry does not analyze why rates moved. Treasury yields are coupon-equivalent par yields (par yield); ZMR is a simple ACT/360 rate; we do not compare them directly.

Next checkpoint

October 9 — ZMR update (latest 4.85% as of October 2, 363-day term); October 12 — U.S. bond market closed (SIFMA recommendation); October 14, 8:30 ET — September CPI; October 16 — standard monthly options expiration; October 27–28 — FOMC meeting

On X today

The one-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.42% on October 7, its lowest since September 17. Over the week it fell 0.12 percentage points (4.54% on September 30). The ten-year, meanwhile, was 5.28%, close to the year's high (5.31%). For one-year financing, the benchmark is the part of the curve that matches its term, not the ten-year rate. Right now these parts of the curve are moving in opposite directions. One week is not yet a trend. Calendar: October 9 — ZMR update (currently 4.85% as of October 2, 363-day term); October 12 — U.S. bond market closed; October 14 — September CPI; October 16 — monthly options expiration; October 27–28 — FOMC. Sources: U.S. Treasury (curve as of Oct 7), SIFMA, BLS, Cboe, Federal Reserve.

View on X

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the U.S. in Freddie Mac's survey as of October 1 was 7.28%. That is up 0.25 percentage points on the week (7.03%) and up 0.63 percentage points since August 20 (6.65%). It is the highest level since November 2023. For a portfolio owner this is background, not a direct alternative: a mortgage is a purpose loan against a home for decades, while financing against a portfolio is usually taken for a short term. But the direction is shared — long-term money is getting more expensive: the 10-year Treasury yield was 5.28% on October 7, near the year's high. Against a brokerage account, the published rates on $100 000 at the four brokers we track range from 4.75% to 11.20%, averaging 7.98% (data as of October 3). ZMR, the one-year SPX box rate, was 4.85% as of October 2. Each method has a different term, a floating or fixed rate, and different risks — compare the full economics, not a single number. Freddie Mac publishes the survey on Thursdays at 12:00 ET — data for a new week may be out by the time this post appears. Sources: Freddie Mac PMMS; U.S. Treasury; rate pages of Interactive Brokers, Charles Schwab, Robinhood, E*TRADE.

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