Rates and calendarOct 9, 2026, 10:00 AM ET

One-month bills at the year's high, the ten-year at its lowest since September 25: which part of the curve matters for financing?

Applies to:: SPX box spread, American-style box spread, Half box
Risk type:: Financing cost

Fact

The 1-month U.S. Treasury yield was 4.14% on October 8: up 0.07 percentage points on the day, the highest since the start of 2026.
The ten-year was 5.22%: down 0.06 percentage points on the day, the lowest since September 25 (5.17%). The year's high, 5.31%, was on October 5.
The one-year was 4.44%, the two-year 4.75%.
Overnight rates on October 7: SOFR 3.88%, EFFR 3.88%; the Fed's target range is 3.75–4.00%, unchanged since October 2.

Sources: U.S. Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates (data as of October 8, 2026, checked October 9, 2026); Federal Reserve Bank of New York, reference rates (data as of October 7, 2026).

Our reading

The ends of the curve are again moving in opposite directions: the shortest segment is getting more expensive, the long end cheaper, and the segment around one year barely changed. For comparing financing costs, what matters is the part of the curve that matches the loan's term. One day of movement is not a trend.

What to check

What rate is your financing tied to — overnight, a term rate, or one fixed for the whole term?
Does the term of the benchmark you compare your rate with match the term of your loan?

Limits

The entry does not analyze why rates moved. Treasury yields are coupon-equivalent par yields (par yield); ZMR is a simple ACT/360 rate; we do not compare them directly.

Next checkpoint

October 9, close — snapshot for the ZMR update (currently 4.85% as of October 2, 363-day term); October 12 — U.S. bond market closed (SIFMA recommendation); October 14, 8:30 ET — September CPI; October 16 — standard monthly options expiration; October 27–28 — FOMC meeting

On X today

The one-month U.S. Treasury yield was 4.14% on October 8, the highest since the start of 2026 (+0.07 percentage points on the day). The ten-year on the same day was 5.22%, the lowest since September 25 (−0.06 percentage points). The one-year barely moved: 4.44%. The short and long ends of the curve are diverging again, while overnight rates stand still: SOFR and EFFR were 3.88% on October 7, the Fed's range is 3.75–4.00%. When comparing financing costs, the benchmark is the part of the curve that matches the loan's term. One day is not yet a trend. Calendar: today at the close — snapshot for the ZMR update (currently 4.85% as of October 2, 363-day term); October 12 — U.S. bond market closed; October 14 — September CPI; October 16 — monthly options expiration; October 27–28 — FOMC. Sources: U.S. Treasury (curve as of Oct 8), New York Fed, SIFMA, BLS, Federal Reserve.

View on X

ZMR, the one-year SPX box rate, was 4.85% as of October 2 (363-day term). That is 3.12 percentage points below the average published broker margin rate on $100 000 at the four brokers we track (7.98%). The next ZMR data point comes from the close of trading on October 9. What changed over the week (October 2 → 8, U.S. Treasury): — 1 month: 4.04% → 4.14% (+0.10 percentage points), the highest since the start of the year; — 3 months: 4.19% → 4.23% (+0.04); — 1 year: 4.46% → 4.44% (−0.02); — 2 years: 4.83% → 4.75% (−0.08); — 10 years: 5.28% → 5.22% (−0.06); on Monday, October 5, the year's high of 5.31%. Unchanged: SOFR and EFFR at 3.88% (October 2 → 7), the Fed's range at 3.75–4.00%. Published broker rates range from 4.75% to 11.20%, with no new observations since October 3. VIX was 15.08 on October 7 (15.31 on October 2). Long-term consumer credit is getting more expensive: the 30-year fixed mortgage rate in Freddie Mac's survey as of October 8 was 7.40% (+0.12 percentage points on the week), the highest since November 2023. The week in sum: the short end of the curve rose, the long end pulled back from the year's high, and the segment around one year barely moved. Different financing methods have different terms, rate types and risks — compare the full economics, not a single number. Sources: U.S. Treasury; New York Fed; Cboe VIX via FRED; Freddie Mac PMMS; rate pages of Interactive Brokers, Charles Schwab, Robinhood, E*TRADE; ZMR — Zero Margin calculation.