After PPI, the 10-year fell 9 bp: what changed in the cost of term?
- Applies to:
- SPX box spread, American-style box spread, Half box
- Risk type:
- Financing cost
Fact
September PPI, final demand (BLS USDL-26-1576, October 15, 8:30 ET): +1.3% m/m SA, +6.3% y/y NSA. Treasury curve October 15 vs October 14: 1M 4.17% (+6 bp), 3M 4.28% (0), 6M 4.35% (−2), 1Y 4.49% (−4), 2Y 4.77% (−5), 10Y 5.10% (−9). SOFR 3.88%, EFFR 3.88% (October 14); Fed target range 3.75–4.00%. Margin on $100k (broker pages dated October 3): Robinhood 4.75%, IBKR 5.38%, Schwab 10.575%, E*TRADE 11.2%; average 7.98%. ZMR 5.11% (October 13, 01:01 ET, 367 days), 2.86 pp below the average. Freddie Mac 30-year PMMS on October 15: 7.40% (unchanged from October 8).
Sources: BLS PPI (USDL-26-1576, October 15, 2026, 8:30 ET); U.S. Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates (October 15, 2026); Federal Reserve Bank of New York reference rates (SOFR/EFFR October 14, 2026); broker pages of IBKR, Schwab, Robinhood, E*TRADE (as of October 3, 2026); Freddie Mac PMMS; ZMR — Zero Margin calculation.
Our reading
After a strong PPI print, the short end of the curve rose and the 10-year fell 9 bp day-over-day (−14 bp vs October 9). Broker published rates are still those observed on October 3; ZMR remains the October 13 weekly point. October 16 is the standard monthly options expiration. Next checkpoint: October 27–28 FOMC.
What to check
- Current margin rates on broker pages.
- Whether a new ZMR observation arrives after the weekly close.
- SOFR/EFFR prints after October 14.
Limits
Broker rates are from their pages as of October 3 for a $100,000 balance. ZMR was observed October 13, 01:01 ET. This entry describes market data and is not individual advice.
Next checkpoint
October 16 — monthly options expiration; October 27–28 — FOMC
Read more
On X today
After September PPI (+1.3% m/m / +6.3% y/y), the October 15 curve: 1M 4.17% (+6), 1Y 4.49% (−4), 10Y 5.10% (−9 vs October 14). SOFR/EFFR 3.88% (October 14). Broker margin rates are from pages dated October 3; average 7.98%. ZMR 5.11% (−2.86 pp). Today is the monthly options expiration.
ZMR is 5.11% as of October 13 (367-day term, 01:01 ET), 2.86 pp below the four-broker $100k margin average (7.98%; pages dated October 3). Week change (October 9 → 15, U.S. Treasury): — 1M: 4.13% → 4.17% (+4 bp); — 3M: 4.25% → 4.28% (+3); — 1Y: 4.47% → 4.49% (+2); — 2Y: 4.80% → 4.77% (−3); — 10Y: 5.24% → 5.10% (−14). SOFR/EFFR on October 14: 3.88%; Fed target range 3.75–4.00%. Freddie Mac 30-year PMMS on October 15: 7.40% (same as October 8). VIX in the snapshot is stale (14.84 on October 9) and is omitted. Week takeaway: the short end edged higher, the long end fell; the ZMR–broker gap is unchanged without a new ZMR point. Compare the full economics of each financing path, not a single number.
The feed describes market events and does not assess any specific account or position. Decisions are yours.